Governments, policies, community opinions change constantly and vastly overtime. Large companies know this and bank projects for the long term cheaply, they work the system in the background and eventually get the project through.
I remember 20 years ago many African countries were a complete 'no go zone' for developing gold projects, look at it now, most investors/instos don't bat an eye lid to many of those countries and valuation discounts to tier one destinations have gone from crazy excessive to marginal.
Things can also go the opposite direction, KCN is a great example. 15 years ago it was spitting out gold and was an ASX darling, I remember it having a premium valuation to others (especially any company operating in Africa!) and then the government decided to mess that all up and close the mine. It's taken KCN a decade to finally get resolution, change does happen.
Back to LCL valuation, it's fairly simple, in the first instance of a JORC resource I like to value it on ounces in the ground and discount that heavily to what you would get in the west. I don't use P/NAV initially which the boffins like to do (I find that it always overstates valuation because the input variables have a huge swing in % and are typically skewed to the positive), my experience over the years has taught me to simply look at the quality of resource, compare to others in the region (at a more advanced stage) and attribute a discounted valuation per ounce, not rocket science at all.
Without diving into all the comparisons to LCL in the region, a fair estimate on a per ounce basis is around US$50-100/oz. Let's be harsh and take the lower number US$50/oz and use a FX rate for AUD of 0.75, A$67/oz.
I'm confident LCL will have a JORC resource early next year of around 3 million ounces, quality ounces too, not the stuff that needs +$3,000 gold to be mined. Using A$67/oz I come to a valuation of $201m or $0.30/share (which funnily enough is $0.06 less than the respected boffins at Sprott).
There you have it, heavily discounted value, if this were Australia then the SP would already be well north of $1.50. Anyone talking the resource is worth zero cause of this factor or that factor is an idiot, you should just go away and invest in Australia at 5x premium and leave us who are happy to take on risk do what we do best, like investing in Africa 20yrs ago!
SD LCL valuation: $0.30/share!
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Mkt cap ! $6.754M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
0.0¢ | 0.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | 0 |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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9 | 2977358 | 0.7¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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0.8¢ | 2125740 | 4 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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9 | 2977358 | 0.007 |
9 | 4751116 | 0.006 |
12 | 5199080 | 0.005 |
6 | 6128763 | 0.004 |
2 | 800000 | 0.003 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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0.008 | 2125740 | 4 |
0.009 | 1858874 | 7 |
0.010 | 2941762 | 4 |
0.011 | 459999 | 2 |
0.012 | 1137500 | 3 |
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