StockAnalysis valuation of Cuban assets

Some time ago (Oct 2018), StockAnalysis did a valuation on MAY
The initial success figures have had to be adjusted up, to reflect the interest increasing from 12.5% to 30%
And then halved to reflect the fact that approx. twice the number of shares on issue now and 2x the market cap

If I've calculated it correctly, the updated figures for the two main targets are:

Alamada 7 c or approx 3x current (with 30% chance of success)
Zapato 11 c or approx 5x current (with 20% chance of success)

Since then of course, there are indications that the oil is lighter which would positively affect the valuation, plus the fact that oil shows have been encountered over large intervals could affect the chances of success (although in different locations to where expected, so ...?)

It is interesting also that the latest Hartleys report on the MAY site gives a risked valuation for the Cuba prospects at 1.6 c/share. Given that they give the chance of success at 3% (this was just after the termination of the previous farmout) then on an unrisked / success basis, the valuation would be 33 x 1.6 or 52.8 cents. Of course this is for success in all prospects, which will never happen, so some fraction of that which probably accords quite reasonably with the StockAnalysis figures