General Discussion AGY, page-3671

Further to my previous post, I have completed some calcs to estimate what might happen for a few different pricing scenarios.

The following chart is a simple P/E valuation model output, based on the following:

SOI = 1.6B
Production = 12ktpa
AGY = 90% ownership of Puna Mining SA
"Margin" effectively represents EBITDA (per tonne for the sake of the calcs)
AUD/USD = 1.41

It is important to remember that this basic model also assumes that we are not constrained by the currently-defined resource. Money buys more tenements; simple. I have no reason to doubt that the company will expand its resources over time, and continue to grow this base over the years ahead. We all know the rest of the Rincon salar has mucho brine; far more than the company that owns it can handle!
Is it reasonable to make this assumption..? You decide!


Anyway, not advice, just some food for thought when pondering the potential.



What's a "reasonable" P/E in a red hot and booming sector...? You decide!
What's a "reasonable" margin to expect when the supply shortfall is set to increase year-on-year for the rest of this decade....? You decide!

Very interesting imo, even if it is "back-of-the-envelope" and based on stated assumptions....
Imo, a share price heading towards $2 seems very reasonable indeed, even if it will take some time.
Been here 5 years, what's another few?!

Happy to tweak for various assumptions if anyone has suggestions/requests. Cheers.


IMO
DYOR