npv, page-2

no takers? First attempt at this so be gentle but using the following very conservative assumptions:
-current margin of $10 per tonne based on managements declaration that we are profitable atm - assumes current cost of production must be close to 100/T on their estimates I guess with a RP price of $110/T for 2010 and limited startup of 300000T sold first year
- increase margin to $20/T for 2011 and 1MT pa achieved
- increase margin to $30/T - (only US 130/T)for 2012-2014 and 3MT pa achieved
- any further devaluation of the US$ compensated for by increase RP price
-initial investment 100 million for startup
-discount rate of 10%

gives a NPV of 100 million for Wonarah alone based on where RP is now and very conservative rebound over the next 5 years with only limited output next year.

MAK market cap is 82million with over 1/2 that in CASH!

Then add value of other projects - Value of the Bon assets?, value of stake in Union - none of these are given any value unless you assume RP is dropping further in price over the next few years rather than rebounding. This is a base value IMO -

and the upside? -Scenario 1: Assuming same limited start for 2010 but with RP price of $125/T 2010, 150/T thereafter you get NPV for Wonarah alone increasing to $250 million
Scenario 2: Limited start with RP price $150/T 2010, $180/T thereafter gives 470million for Wonarah - now were starting to talk a Big Mak!