Tassal Group Strategic Thoughts, page-227

Gee, some big results overnight on the export prices. @bug1 has been all over it.

Prices (+65NOK) are now about ~5% over 5yr average (62NOK) for this time of year, on increasing volume too.

Interestingly, they are also beating recent forecasts and continue to forecast higher prices for FY22. So a month ago they were expecting prices to remain high around 65NOK until June 2022, but now they are saying that could be 67NOK. That's about +$1.5m EBITDA.



My conservative estimates for salmon export EBITDA of ~$30m this year may turn out to be conservative. We may be running closer to ~$40m at this rate. If the bull case comes out - higher volumes and just matching the FY20 export prices which we're currently exceeding - then we're on track for ~$50m EBITDA.

To put in perspective, that's 4x FY19 ($11m), 2x FY20 ($22m) and 2x FY21 ($9m) excluding air freight. If you factor in the air freight of ~$20m, then even a conservative estimate is being on par with FY20; and improving from -$10m in FY21 to +$20-$30m in FY22.