BBG 0.00% $1.05 billabong international limited

strong aussie $ hurts bbg profits, page-16

  1. DSD
    15,757 Posts.
    21 days ago i started this thread giving reasons why i had opened a short position in BBG at 11.48. usually one gets slandered for suggesting a short sell but post generated a few polite replies. for the next few days the SP rose reaching over 11.95. I only marginally increased my short as am getting roasted with a short-sell gone wrong on JBH. but i never doubted BBG would fall.
    BBG's SP started sliding several days ago and has gathered pace. Today's AGM address confirmed what i had opined 3 weeks ago. Slow sales in USA combined with strong AUD are hurting BBG. Closed one short at 10.60 today but still feel SP has further to go. BBG management feel the bottom has been reached with US consumer but i am not so sure. Billabong is expensive clothing and a discretionary item. I'll close the rest at just below 10.oo if it gets there... which i feel it will esp if DOW and S&P continue to weaken.
    PS. i got JBH wrong as i:
    1) didn't think aussies would kep buying plasmas in such huge numbers.
    2) i know(and JBH management know) that JBH is only a partial indirect beneficary of strong AUD as all its products are imported. however, the buying group outside of JBH recoups major slice of currency gain/risk.
    However, mkt has come for JBH in droves. Is it now worth shorting? probably... but don't be impatient/overconfident like me. wait instead for trend to turn.
    good luck... MikeM.
 
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