Ann: Preliminary Approval for up to US$657m in Funding from EXIM, page-304

Thanks Burnside.

That report is 2017, so it uses a lot of old data.

So I've had another stab at a back of the envelope calculation. This time I've used a PE ratio, to avoid the NPV debate. The numbers are very rough, and readers must DYOR, as I may well be wrong.

If I am right, then even if we need AUD $250M extra, and that is raised around 4.5c (at a 10% discount to 5c SP), then that still leaves an upside of 0.28c SP, by year 3 production. If the $250M is raised when the SP is around 15c, that'll give us a SP of 0.61c by year 3 of production.



Alternatively, again, assuming my back of the envelope calcs are remotely accurate (DYOR!), farming out a large part of the project in return for no IBG capex looks good too. Here, keeping 35% would get us 0.54c by year 3, assuming the deal means the partner takes on all capex. The risk with this sort of deal, among many things, is the partner shelves the project.