whats the deal worth?

interesting articles and something to gauge the value of this upcoming avx-tibotec deal below

howabout a 30c sp based on a deal with npv of $70M-$100M, with $10M upfront, starting with 6% tiered royalties and $450M in milestones...


Discovery & Preclinical License Deals: What’s realistic?
http://www.avance.ch/newsletter/docs/avance_on_deals.pdf

The total deal value, i.e. the value of all future cash flows adjusted for their likelihood by their success rates and discounted back to the date of valuation, is for discovery deals US$40.5M, and US$55.1M for preclinical deals.

and here
BioPharmaceutical Royalty Rate & Deal Terms Survey
http://www.leschile.cl/seminario2008/LESC-S2008-JM.pdf

average up front payment to NPV = 15%