Hi Greg
Here are my thoughts on earnings for the year:
Victory Park Capital (VPC) - following figures from Note 22 (b) in Annual ReportLast year VPC retained $4.74M to invest in SPAC's that have now been realised. The 9.29c is expected to be added to EPS this year.
If you factor in growth of VPC profit after tax from 2020 ($13.827M) to 2021 ($26.781M), FUM growth was steady however there appears to be significant growth in the first quarter for this financial year, so far $A800M of FUM in the first quarter.
Assume FUM growth doubles for the full year by $A1.6B, then this will increase VPC revenue by 33% (FUM $A4.74B to $A6.34B) and add 33% to $26.781M, $A35.619M.
PAC's share will increase to $A8.869M or 17.4c contributed to EPS by VPC.
VPC's contribution
Starting at 51c EPS last year (excludes all Seizert Capital earnings)
Add 9.29c for previously retained earnings
Add 17.4c for growth of FUM
Total estimated EPS of 77.69c post adding VPC (ex SPAC contributions or performance fees)
Aggregate contribution - following figures from Note 22 (b) in Annual ReportAggregate FUM always increases by $500k per annum. Assume the same happens again, add 1c to EPS
Total estimated EPS of 78.69c post adding Aggregate FUM
Proterra - following figures from Note 2a
Proterra is part of the FVTPL group of companies. With growth of FUM in September QTR of $A450M or approximately 25% and a further $US300M expected in the coming quarter through current FUM raising for Proterra Credit FUM 2, assume $A8M is Proterra's current contribution in dividends and this will increase by $A2M or 3.9c per share
Proterra contribution
Add 3.9c per share
Total estimated EPS of 82.59c post adding Proterra revenue based on additional FUM
Performance fees
Assume similar performance fees to prior year (2020, not 2021)
$A2.65M for the full year, will be reported for the full year or potentially 5.19c per share.
Performance fees contribution
Performance fees are the most at risk.
Total estimated EPS of 87.78c post adding performance fees
Banner Oak Capital Partners
Assume contribution for 6 months is 6.5c.
Banner Oak Capital Partners contribution
Add 6.5c per share
Total estimated EPS of 94.28c (100.78c EPS for the full year)
I haven't even included SPAC's. I believe SPAC's will contribute a fair bit more than what we expect, however one downside to this is that BAKKT and DAVE appear to be stuck under $10. They will contribute $US40M each for sponsorship fees. Any earnings by VPC will depend how much VPC have put in. Based on retained earnings, assume the VPC business contributed $1M to each SPAC from a total investment of $US5M each per SPAC (potentially $US4M to $US10M for each SPAC to VPC, therefore $US1M to $US2.5M to PAC).
This means we could be talking a range of $A5.5M to $A13.7M, with AUD/USD rate of $0.7300. This will add approximately 10c to 27c to EPS over a couple of calendar years. This excludes any performance fees from the SPAC's, as the end price doesn't look that good.
Keen on feedback. I have rose coloured glasses on, as always. There may be some tax advantages to do with the Seizert loss of $US5M.
Best of Luck
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