Silviu Itescu The Legend, page-142

@optimistus
Fair point …but what a shame your screen didn’t go back another year…you might just have come to another conclusion? …see charts below
Most biotechs are off between 30-50% this year …just look at when the XBI peaked in 2021. Totally miserable time for all biotech investors as our crypto gurus enjoy their elevated gains at the early stage of another cycle perhaps ?

Personally I believe in patents being walled moats and providing protection from regression analysis. I like the idea that the hot money is not in the stoock right now…and the patient companies who have navigate their clinical trial pathways to demonstrate totally new breakthroughs in clinical science will make exceptional returns . I estimate that Mesoblast’s last P3 trial for CLBP will probably cost around $25m and that based around 15% market share in the US alone we could reach north of $2bn in sales within 5 years of launch which is only 15% of the market based on a $13-15k price per treatment . I would also budget for top up treatments every four years…assuming likely durabilty of treatment effect . Just to remind everyone there are considered to be 250k eligible patients being newly eligible for this treatment in the US every year. This is on top of the over 3m existing sufferers although 65% of them will be too fibrotic to treat. The COGS should be less than 5% since we are only using a 6m dose which is minuscule. Before anyone disputes these numbers , just look up the milestone commitments made by Grunenthal in the event our therapy is available for market . They are the number 2 in the world in CLBP so they might know a little more than our shorting friends .
Let’s say I am wrong and you want to halve that …you still have a potential multi billion NPV right now for US back pain ALONE.

I must point out the obvious hurdle of needing to complete an additional 12 month Phase 3 trial which will require 6-9 months to enrol . Looking at the p values obtained in our first Phase 3 for this indication …I think we have a 90% chance of hitting the primary endpoint. This is important as the shorters believe they can walk down the share price and pick up cheap stock in another funding round….but SIlviu should be able to easily monetise this therapy now that the FDA have approved such a straightforward 12 month endpoint .