Interesting analysis. No doubt BIS have several challenges to overcome if they are to grow significantly, particularly management wise.
Having said that, the current conditions should still make BIS very profitable.
What I will say is the following points about the current situation.
- All but one of the companies in the testimonials are tiny players within the steel industry. There are hundreds, if not thousands of happy users of BIS.
- A major shareholder of BIS is also the owner of the third largest steel provider within Australia. It does not take much imagination to rightly or wrongly assume that they are pushing BIS products. Furthermore at least two of the testimonials are direct competitors of the third largest steel provider.
- Material shortages have been felt across all metal products and certainly not just a problem suffered by BIS and Bluescope. For quite some time I have found certain imported metal products to be a lot harder to obtain in contrast to Australian products. This was due to the removal of offsets in China, a reduction of steel exports from both China & USA and logistic issues plus Covid.
- The price increases as mentioned by TEI are a mute point as they have been felt across all metal products. Australian metal products are not going to increase in price unless there are either increases in the price of imported products or logistic issues affecting imported supplies. For standard plain old GR250 steel plate the cost to TEI was probably between $1400-$1900 per tonne at that point in time. $4,250 per tonne is not unreasonable for a very specialised product in times of low supply and high demand.
- Even if dumping is not proven and no negative action were to come to SSAB, the demand for metal products within Australia has increased while imported metal products have become harder to obtain coincidently. The expansion of mining into many other commodities will have an effect on the amount of wear plate required. Wear plate and other specialised metal products should be in demand for quite a few years unless a major global downturn were to happen.
I am a small holder of BIS. I am not emotionally attached and will sell should I see the market conditions change.
All of this is my opinion and should not be taken as financial advice. DYOR.
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