Hi @Chella
I have used Yahoo Finance Average EPS forecast for 2022. The reduction is a difference of 6%, the drop is still likely to be significant, 23.22% (assumes investors will use forecast EPS rather than current year EPS).
If the above is extrapolated to Global Equities FUM, currently $A64.931B from Chella's Table above, Magellan will end up with FUM of $A49.854B [$64.931-23.22%($15.077B)=$49.854B]. This is a difference of about $A4.227B from previous post.
Here are the underlying values:
Portfolio Holdings as at September Quarter
Fall if based on Current EPS and revert back to Historical Average PE Ratios
Fall if based on Forecast EPS and revert back to Historical Average PE Ratios
The point of this is:
1> There is no downside protection in Magellan's portfolio if you are an investor in Magellan's Global Equity Fund
2> Shareholders are not immune from suffering further. Market drop will likely mean FUM drops by a similar amount as SJP leaving the Fund. The above range between -23.22% and -29.73% is a reversion to historical averages and may fall further.
Best of Luck
Lost
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