It isn't too hard to figure that GSK experience with Relenza, the new delivery system and ramped up production could place them in a good position to convert to Lani production as required. It is obvious to me that GSK has this in mind. No mistake. They want Lani!
If there is a fast response conversion possible for all or part of their Relenza production facilities, GSK should be able to offer improved terms for a Lani deal. Past differences under a previous GSK CEO have already been put aside. Business is business and shareholders will be well rewarded for the settlement decision the board eventually made. I assume that BTA & GSK will actually be able to cut a Lani deal.
A good deal and rapid response might be matched by fast regulatory approval, given the worsening pandemic. It would not be surprising to see competitively priced Lani available before the 2014 Relenza patent expiry. This would be a predictable response to the expected flood of Relenza generics. Some pandemic supplies of Relenza will be used or at their 7 year expiry around that time, with a 2 or 3 year expiry spike beginning in 2016. Lani will need to be ready for significant distribution until 2021 (patent expiry), when we will be looking at next generation antivirals that Biota is already researching. Imho Biota value would rise substantially with the announcement of a Lani deal and continuing to rise through the approval, facility preparation and beyond. If Biota can develope 3rd and subsequent generation antivirals, it is destined to be an incredibly successful company.
Biota and other health care biotechs are very important to big pharma. Certainly Lani partner(s) will be looking for our subsequent generation antiviral years prior to current generation patent expiry dates. That is more likely to actually happen if Biota is encouraged to do what it does best, without having to protect itself every so often. It might be that a partnered big pharma could even help us watch our back.
IV Relenza development is not economic, and there has not been a completed approval process. Provision for each selected patient on request is a very special arrangement to save a few who have no other chance for survival. I believe there is no planned change to this status and wouldn't count on IV Relenza for increased share value.
DYOR
BTA Price at posting:
$2.68 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
