possible trend reversal?, page-7

The retracement levels have worked nicely since the new bull trend in March, finding support at the 50% level on the first leg up, then a brief touch of 61.8% on the second leg up (intraday low of 65c).


We can see that the first two legs up since March have rallied between the 50 and 61.8% Fib extension levels. Extrapolating this for the current leg would yield $1.10, assuming a 50% extension. However, there has been an obvious divergence at 85c so this would first need to be cleared, followed by the 52-week high at 90c (I will be looking for 2 days closing above 90c, before expecting continuation of the trend).


The weekly shows the trend since March as still intact and NMS is showing good strength, although it is moving towards medium-term overbought condition. We could get either a big blowoff top, reaching somewhere around the $1.10 or alternatively, have a longish period of sideways movement while time is absorbed.


The monthly paints a different story to both the daily and weekly chart and signals we don't have too much gas left in the tank for now. Keep in mind this is a monthly chart and trends can operate within trends, i.e. the weekly and daily suggest a little more to come yet, however the monthly tells us we will not keep rallying month after month and at some point we will need a period of consolidation (months - not weeks).