BRN 9.30% 19.5¢ brainchip holdings ltd

Long term valuation, page-41

  1. FKE
    5 Posts.
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    Good evening from Germany,

    Long term valuation (7+ years) based on a purely theoretical subjectivelyinterpreted scenario with several assumptions:

    1.) 5 applications/productswere chosen to be included in the consideration.

    2.) Apotential Brainchip market share / pick rate of 20%.

    3.) Thenumber of IPs/chips per application in the automotive industry is 10 pieces,for the rest 1 piece.

    4.) Aprofit of $10 per IP/chip is expected.

    5.) The PEfactor for company valuation is assumed to be 20.

    6.) Calculationbased on 1.7B shares outstanding.

    Calculation:

    I haveattached a summary as a screenshot. Ihave put sources for the annual sales figures at the end of the text.

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/3987/3987283-f27596c37ac2921b0f42369516e2dc4d.jpg

    Automotivemarket:

    About 66million cars are sold annually. We got here by Mercedes a first impressionwhich applications can be covered by AKIDA. I expect speech recognition, facerecognition and processing of information for autonomous driving. Certainly,there are significantly more applications in the automotive sector, but thisshould serve as a starting point. The estimated 10 IPs/chips per car are alsochosen relatively cautiously here. Accordingly, the potential is (66 M * 20% *10 units) a total of 132 million units per year.

    Smartphones:

    In myopinion a potential link to one major smartphone supplier would be a milestone.Approximately 1.5 billion cell phones are sold worldwide in a year. With anestimated market share of 20%, I calculate a potential of 300 million unitssold per year here, assuming one IP/chip per phone.

    Refrigerators/ washing machines:

    Dot joiningto LG + Peter's article (what to expect from the AI market in 2022) + thepublished Youtube videos by Brainchip make me include these two applications.Historical sales volumes of 236 million (fridges) and 170 million (washingmachines) lead to a potential annual volume of 47.2 million (fridges) and 34million units (washing machines) at 20% market share and one IP/chip perapplication.

    SmartSpeaker:

    The voicerecognition function seems to work, according to Mercedes. Furthermore, aconnection to Amazon/Apple seems to be an option in my opinion. With 166million units sold per year, a 20% market share for Brainchip results in apotential annual volume of 33.2 million units.

    Totalunits / a

    In total,we thus get an estimated potential of (132+300+47+34+33) approx. 546 millionunits per year.

    The high-volumedemand quantities are met via IP, so I don't assume large material/productioncosts, etc. I have in mind 95% margin for an IP sale. The potential profit perunit is therefore assumed to be $10.

    Profit/ a

    Multipliedby the assumed 546 million units sold per year, we arrive at $5464 million in profit($5.464 billion).

    MC

    Multipliedby a PE factor of 20, we get a company valuation (MC) of just over $109 billion.

    SP

    This inturn corresponds to a share price of more than $64, based on 1.7B sharesoutstanding.



    Additionalpotential applications/products/industries

    In additionto this, there is an almost infinite number of other options that couldpotentially drive revenue growth for Brainchip. Here is just a small excerpt:

    · Health- hand held devices

    · TVs(215 million units 2021)

    · Desktop/ Notebook (341 million units 2021)

    · Headphones

    · Smartglasses

    · Cybersecurity

    · Maintenance(Construction, Cars, etc.)

    · SmartCity

    · Powerconsumption optimization for server

    · Drones

    · Military

    · NASA

    · Smartrobotic

    · Severalindustry applications

    · Thingswe have absolutely no idea of that they will ever exist

    · etc.

    Sourcesof sales figures:

    •Global car sales 2010-2021 | Statista

    •Smartphone sales worldwide | Statista

    •Global: refrigerator sales 2012-2025 | Statista

    Alexa, tell me about the smartspeaker market in 2021 | S&P Global Market Intelligence (spglobal.com)

    • Washing machines & dryers unitsales worldwide 2013-2025 | Statista

    •Global TV shipments 2015-2021 | Statista

    Canalys Newsroom - GlobalPC shipments pass 340 million in 2021 and 2022 is setto be even stronger

    In the caseof Statista sources, data may not be visible without payment. A Google searchwill confirm the figures given relatively quickly.

    I am ananonymous poster. DYOR. No financial advice.

    FKE

 
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