Ann: Appointment of Ex-FMG Senior Executive as Managing Director, page-6

Appreciate your sentiments mate - Lets go through your main points:
You said - "So what are the chances of a $20m market cap company like FIN raising $1.4 billion to complete construction and get into operation in about 6 or 7 years, and then spend 4 years (or a lot more) paying off the loans, meaning that realistically you will be looking at a first profit in probably 10 to 12 years? It's a long wait, and these current old industry veterans will probably be long gone by then."

The chances of a $20 million mkt cap raising 1.4 billion ON ITS OWN are close to nil. However, if you read FIN's market annoucements you would have come across a central thematic which basically states that FIN would take on project partners on some modules, and run peripherals under a BOO/T model. Certain core parts of the project would necessarily have to remain under the direct ownership and hence control of FIN's share holders. How much that is, is not clear at this early stage. But then that's one of the reasons why its a highly speculative stock.

If you use the model that's been suggested by the BoD, your estimate of 10-12 years does not hold (it would hold if it was purely senior debt funded).

It has the right management (though God only knows how many of them would be still running it in 10 years time). Having said that though, once the company has reached a certain point in the Lassonde curve, its far easier to drive through to completion.

Regarding construction and impending profitability, the company intends to have its DFS complete by Q1-2024 with FID also by Q1-2024. If there's one thing I have no doubts about, its the ability of current new management hires to achieve this milestone in the time period specified.

Once FID is reached in Q1-2024, its around 18 months of construction (going off BCI's project timelines). That takes us to Q3-2026. Allow 6 months of commisioning and steady state, takes us Q1-2027 for steady state production. So your estimate is not far off what I have calcualted (minus a year). You say 6-7 years, and I say 5 years.

Allow a couple of years of FCF accumulation to build a cash buffer (takes us to Q1-2029) and then by Q2-2029 we should be looking at some dividends.

Naturally, all this is highly speculative, but we should be able to pull this off given the accumen of our current management.
GLTAH!!