Ann: Hot Chili Commences Port Services Negotiation, page-49

I don't think they will. The taper will happen. As long as the real economy keeps recovering and unemployment remains low the Fed need to normalise policy. They can't raise interest rates too much because the country is so indebted so inflating away the debt remains the only option. This will support commodity prices such as copper, in addition to the unprecedented globally synchronised demand due to the structural shift to electrification. It's not just the USA that is geared to the eye-balls, so is China and the developing word economies that have taken on Chinese debt for poorly performing infrastructure projects.


The thing about US markets is that margin lending is through the roof. Investors are massively geared compared to even the GFC. So, US markets can just fall under the weight of their own contagion without the Fed doing anything. Once the music stops playing everyone has to scramble for the exit.

The smart money started winding back their margin positions in November '21.




https://www.yardeni.com/pub/stmkteqmardebt.pdf