FMG (ASX) FMG Feb 2022 Div Guesses

Originally posted by MegaA: ↑

Im not satisfied with the above analasys as it relies too much on guessing through visuals rather than giving accurate iron ore price data . As well as this the quoted 2021 dividend price is a couple of cents off. As a result i've decided to give a more accurate post as to what the dividend payment may be for this years Interim dividend. First lets look at the average prices of Iron Ore leading into last years payment - which was as follows
December 31, 2020 155.43
1 November 30, 2020 124.36
2 October 31, 2020 119.78
3 September 30, 2020 123.75
4 August 31, 2020 121.07
5 July 31, 2020 108.52

Which works out at a average of 125.48 for the 6 months prior to the dividend payment

This time around we are working with the following prices

Date Value
1 December 31, 2021 116.96
2 November 30, 2021 96.24
3 October 31, 2021 122.91
4 September 30, 2021 124.52
5 August 31, 2021 162.16
6 July 31, 2021 214.14

The average price of Iron ore leading up to this years dividend is 139.48 therefore exactly 14$ more than what we were looking at 12 months back or a 11.21 % increase (close but not the 15% originally guesstimated). I believe that this will not result to a direct 11.21% increase in dividend payment as we must consider that theirs been increased production costs however this is slightly offset due to increased shipments of iron ore being 45.6 (mt) which equates to a 3% greater output as compared to the first quarter of financial year 21. In this point in time this is the only comparable production data we have as the 2nd quarter production reports will be released Tuesday therefore i'm going to assume that the trend continued and that FMG increased production by 3% over the half year.

In theory a 3% increase of production added to a 11.21% increase in price paid should gives us a increased profit of around 14.5 % however as stated earlier production costs have increased and we must consider a greater grade discount therefore i'm going to guesstimate that for this half yearly we will only see a 10% increase in profits instead of 14.5.

Last years dividend payment was $1.47 a additional 10% will see us at around about $1.62 therefore not too far off the first estimate after all.

Any feedback especially feedback stating any possible errors is welcomed as i'm always happy to learn from those more knowledgeable than me and just to state the bleeding obvious don't take the above prediction as fact - always scrutinize internet posts and use your own brain to dissect the information presented.
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In relation to my estimate posted almost a monthago, my prediction was $1.50 with a possible variation of 5c in each direction.
In a way to find the average IOP for the past6 months, it is not a big deal, but I would like to pay your attention to the followingcompany statements from their previous reports:
Q1FY22 report of 28/10/21
“Average revenue ofUS$118/dry metric tonne (dmt) represents revenue realisation of 73 per centof the average Platts 62% CFR Index and contractual realisation of 77 per cent”
Q4FY21 report of 29/07/21
“Record averagerevenue of US$168/dry metric tonne (dmt) forthe quarter, realising 84 per centof the average Platts 62%CFRIndex,and US$135/dmtforFY21”
Also it is notclear exactly what is the full production cost. Previously it was ~US$40/ton.

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	93	$21.40

No.

Vol.

Price($)

$21.40

Price($)	Vol.	No.
$21.41	12657	3

Price($)

Vol.

No.

$21.41

12657

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	93	21.400
2	3150	21.350
1	200	21.330
2	1046	21.320
1	1000	21.310

No.

Vol.

Price($)

21.400

3150

21.350

200

21.330

1046

21.320

1000

21.310

Price($)	Vol.	No.
21.420	1200	1
21.450	1500	1
21.510	2020	1
21.520	951	1
21.530	1500	1

Price($)

Vol.

No.

21.420

1200

21.450

1500

21.510

2020

21.520

951

21.530

1500

(20min delay)
Last $21.41		Change -0.260(1.20%)		Mkt cap ! $65.92B

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$21.52	$21.67	$21.30	$150.5M	7.000M

FMG Feb 2022 Div Guesses, page-12

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	December 31, 2020	155.43
1	November 30, 2020	124.36
2	October 31, 2020	119.78
3	September 30, 2020	123.75
4	August 31, 2020	121.07
5	July 31, 2020	108.52

	Date	Value
1	December 31, 2021	116.96
2	November 30, 2021	96.24
3	October 31, 2021	122.91
4	September 30, 2021	124.52
5	August 31, 2021	162.16
6	July 31, 2021	214.14

FMG Feb 2022 Div Guesses, page-12

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