yeah sorry about my last post, I didn't really have time to write a detailed explanation of why I pulled that figure out. Here is some info:
Column 1
Column 2
0
tons per annum 2440 @ 40,000 per ton
97,600,000.00
1
aisc per ton, per annum
28,792,000.00
2
total profit
68,808,000.00
3
net profit (30% tax rate)
48,165,600.00
4
earnings per share
0.26
5
estimate of instrinsic value, using average pe ratio 10 as per industry averages
2.60
6
total market cap instrinsic value
481,991,192.00
7
less capex
100,000,000.00
8
382,000,000.00
9
per share
2.06
Now this is US dollars, therefore: $531,759,662 estimated market cap, or $2.87 per share.
This is very conservative, with a high margin of safety:
*ELT have quoted 52mill capex. I have used $100m, to allow for budget overruns.
*As per dec 3rd announcement, annual tonnage may increase.
*No value has been put on the cleveland project! This is a very large margin of safety. The cleveland project is very viable at current Sn prices, just not as advanced in project.
*PE used is 10. Mr Market will ultimately decide this, higher is a possibility, as well as lower.
*I have used total diluted shares, including all options/performance rights. I haven't included the cash injection from exercise of such options.
*And don't forget... ELT have ZERO debt.
*But obviously most importantly... I have used $40,000USD per ton. Current price is 43955 (3mnth contract, LME). Where to from here? Likely upwards over 50K, but no one knows the answer to this.
ELT Price at posting:
55.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
