I had project finance at USD$250M; Equity at USD$110M and USD$40 existing cash.
Retired said that Cook had stated possible USD$200M and Other USD$200M.This is closer to what I really think.
I toned down my analysis based on past "feral" responses to previous posts of what I saw as realistic evaluations, but others viewed as being too negative.
CVN are in a good position, but a difficult position.
Specifically,
- Single Project = Higher Risk of Failure/Default = less finance available at a higher cost. I have been told by other companies that banks won't finance a single project, but this may not be the case for CVN/Dorado.
- They don't have any existing production/cashflow to support the loan.
- Banks will require a substantial amount of planned production to be hedged - could be 75%. Current futures (2025 to 2028) around $67/bbl. This probably translates to low $50's/bbl collars.
Other Options
1. Partial sell down.This may be the best option. If STO are interested, and depending on the strength of STO's balance sheet, they may be able to arrange funding via a JV facility, i.e., STO acts as the guarantor as part of a partial sell down.
Would there be other buyers for a partial sell down.
2. Buy a Producer with net cash and significant cashflow using Script.
This may be a better option than a capital raise.
I own HZN, and the reason that I started to look at CVN was because I thought that it may make sense for CVN to bid for HZN.
I don't think this will happen. However, there are other fish in the sea, and my logic was/is as follows:
Acquiring a company with producing assets/cashflow, and net cash would
- multiple assets lessens risk, and results in higher lending ratio = more funding
- multiple assets increases reserves = more funding
- existing cashflow = more funding
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Last
16.5¢ |
Change
0.000(0.00%) |
Mkt cap ! $295.1M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
16.5¢ | 16.8¢ | 15.5¢ | $1.388M | 8.584M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
7 | 429217 | 16.0¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
16.5¢ | 518902 | 4 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
7 | 429217 | 0.160 |
14 | 823700 | 0.155 |
18 | 1275052 | 0.150 |
16 | 738282 | 0.145 |
10 | 342778 | 0.140 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.165 | 518902 | 4 |
0.170 | 806729 | 14 |
0.175 | 1047347 | 8 |
0.180 | 470225 | 7 |
0.185 | 269057 | 5 |
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