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bombom

1,235 Posts.

103

26/01/22

03:32

Post #: 59134279
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Originally posted by Darkstone: ↑

Now was right then. - I think around 918. It did in fact bounce to about 946 but failed to get to the target - 950 to 960 to secure the recovery. So when it broke 918 again I sold some between 916 and 918, then stopped and waited (as it slid into the 907 range) as it looked to be be building strength around 901 and re-bought at 911 when it bounced again. Below 918 I have run out of TA based bounce points and consider the current EW model broken. Obviously there will be other bounce targets, but below 918 my existing trading model no longer applies. Now that does not mean I will exit, but I will have to form a different scenario to that which I was using.

I am essentially of the view that this latest action is an aberration and unlikely to continue (hence the reason why I have not exited yet and why I hesitated around 915). I think (for no other reason than instinct) it is driven by non TA factors and we will need to watch the US action for the next couple of evenings to decide what happens next. I am of the view that the whole tantrum is primarily due to the Ukraine fear and I just can't see Russia or the US actually coming to blows about it - although I think the Dems would like everyone to believe that Russia is about to invade and the world needs to fly to its rescue. I suspect the US Fed will not do anything significant about rates just yet - so that too will blow over in the next few days. In fact I don't think they can really do too much at all as the level of indebtedness in the world Governments is so high now they simply need inflation to run for a while to reduce the debt load in real terms - and this inflation has a big component that is artificially created by supply constraints caused significantly (if nor mainly) by vaccine mandates & quarantine/isolation coupled with insane levels of fiscal pump-priming - which is why we are seeing countries progressively dropping all Covid restrictions as soon as they think the latest wave has arguably peaked. For example Woolworths & Coles advised recently that the reason their delivery stocks were low (out of stock items all over the web site) was primarily because 30% of their distribution staff were in isolation/quarantine after testing positive to Omicron and the remainder can't restock and distribute fast enough. I expect this is happening all over the place. As this wave peaks this situation will reduce.

The thing that everyone who is panicking seems to forget is that Europe -especially Germany- is dependent on Russia for its gas supply. In the event of an actual conflict what do they think would happen to that supply? Also I think the Dems are seriously miscalculating how the US population will react to another conflict - particularly under this current admin and particularly with Russia. In the entire history of the cold war the US and Russia have never come to a direct confrontation - so are they really likely to do it now? Over Ukraine? Their conflict has always been waged through proxies. If Russia invaded Ukraine directly it would all be over in a few days, if not hours. The bigger risk is China hitting Taiwan at the same time but I can't see that happening right now because of CNY and the Olympics. I think this whole thing has been artificially manufactured by the current US admin in an attempt to achieve domestic political objectives, but it has rapidly got out of control and screwed up - like everything this current admin touches. So I guess I am expecting sanity to prevail pretty soon. There are things worth being crazy about - but not the things we are being fed right now.

What I am frustrated about now is that I didn't realise the ramifications of all this crap about $1.50 ago when I bought back in the last time. I just didn't expect the masses to be so easily sucked in again. Remember all those videos of people dropping dead in the street and while on phone calls coming out of China two years ago when the first wave first appeared in China? When did that ever happen in the West? Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me.

So I don't believe this market melt-down is real yet - but it seems everyone else except us on this forum might.

My Li-Bat index ended the day on -362k. with every share in the red. At least AKE wasn't the worst.

So My basic view is essentially that if the current TA is going to hold it has to reverse basically now. On Thursday it must go up or we have an entirely different thing going on to what we have had. It could have a flat day - that is ok, but it can not keep going down.

Expand

You present deep situational awareness described so eloquently - it felt like you were taking words out of my mouth..... and then you ruin it all in the last para by bring TA back into the frame.
Sorry - haven't you realized it's BS and any reasonable SP horizon (ie weeks) depends solely on FA combined with the above mentioned scenario, which you yourself outlined.

Originally posted by Darkstone: ↑

Now was right then. - I think around 918. It did in fact bounce to about 946 but failed to get to the target - 950 to 960 to secure the recovery. So when it broke 918 again I sold some between 916 and 918, then stopped and waited (as it slid into the 907 range) as it looked to be be building strength around 901 and re-bought at 911 when it bounced again. Below 918 I have run out of TA based bounce points and consider the current EW model broken. Obviously there will be other bounce targets, but below 918 my existing trading model no longer applies. Now that does not mean I will exit, but I will have to form a different scenario to that which I was using.

I am essentially of the view that this latest action is an aberration and unlikely to continue (hence the reason why I have not exited yet and why I hesitated around 915). I think (for no other reason than instinct) it is driven by non TA factors and we will need to watch the US action for the next couple of evenings to decide what happens next. I am of the view that the whole tantrum is primarily due to the Ukraine fear and I just can't see Russia or the US actually coming to blows about it - although I think the Dems would like everyone to believe that Russia is about to invade and the world needs to fly to its rescue. I suspect the US Fed will not do anything significant about rates just yet - so that too will blow over in the next few days. In fact I don't think they can really do too much at all as the level of indebtedness in the world Governments is so high now they simply need inflation to run for a while to reduce the debt load in real terms - and this inflation has a big component that is artificially created by supply constraints caused significantly (if nor mainly) by vaccine mandates & quarantine/isolation coupled with insane levels of fiscal pump-priming - which is why we are seeing countries progressively dropping all Covid restrictions as soon as they think the latest wave has arguably peaked. For example Woolworths & Coles advised recently that the reason their delivery stocks were low (out of stock items all over the web site) was primarily because 30% of their distribution staff were in isolation/quarantine after testing positive to Omicron and the remainder can't restock and distribute fast enough. I expect this is happening all over the place. As this wave peaks this situation will reduce.

The thing that everyone who is panicking seems to forget is that Europe -especially Germany- is dependent on Russia for its gas supply. In the event of an actual conflict what do they think would happen to that supply? Also I think the Dems are seriously miscalculating how the US population will react to another conflict - particularly under this current admin and particularly with Russia. In the entire history of the cold war the US and Russia have never come to a direct confrontation - so are they really likely to do it now? Over Ukraine? Their conflict has always been waged through proxies. If Russia invaded Ukraine directly it would all be over in a few days, if not hours. The bigger risk is China hitting Taiwan at the same time but I can't see that happening right now because of CNY and the Olympics. I think this whole thing has been artificially manufactured by the current US admin in an attempt to achieve domestic political objectives, but it has rapidly got out of control and screwed up - like everything this current admin touches. So I guess I am expecting sanity to prevail pretty soon. There are things worth being crazy about - but not the things we are being fed right now.

What I am frustrated about now is that I didn't realise the ramifications of all this crap about $1.50 ago when I bought back in the last time. I just didn't expect the masses to be so easily sucked in again. Remember all those videos of people dropping dead in the street and while on phone calls coming out of China two years ago when the first wave first appeared in China? When did that ever happen in the West? Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me.

So I don't believe this market melt-down is real yet - but it seems everyone else except us on this forum might.

My Li-Bat index ended the day on -362k. with every share in the red. At least AKE wasn't the worst.

So My basic view is essentially that if the current TA is going to hold it has to reverse basically now. On Thursday it must go up or we have an entirely different thing going on to what we have had. It could have a flat day - that is ok, but it can not keep going down.

Expand

AKE Price at posting: $9.16 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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