first post on the first australian forum but have been trading this stock for well over 12 mnths from back in the days when it was in the mid to high 2cnts bracket. a fellow hot copper posted a well established trading principle
"buy on the rumour, sell on the fact"
when we were all awaiting results from whether shell would elect to take their position in our senegal block the rampers came quick and fast to pump this stock to becoming the next hunt oil and gas or poisideon. truth was and is that shell obviously wasnt conducting the survey on the main prize that exists in first australians senegal acreage. the fact of the matter is that it seems blatantly obvious that the rampers have seemed to come out from under their rocks to once again give price valuations and possible shareprice scenarios all on a what if basis which most times lures new or novice investors to believe the fact that they could be multibaggers overnight. the truth of the matter is honestly, DYOR. It is obvious that it is human nature that we are all different in numerous ways and that includes our motivations and investing strategies.
With that sais however, i am confident to say that First Australian is surely in a stronger position than it was prior to obtaining the 3D surveys which were conducted by Shell. We are now cashed up with both significant cash backing, the obvious support from the Senegal Government to drill a well on this potentially company and nation making oil and gas block and we have walked away with n obvious psychological advantage of being noticed on a world scale with shell sniffing our acreage for possible exploration activities. The truth of the matter remains that First Australian are a producing oil and gas company with a suite of blocks in numerous continents- they have the ability to attract the majors and undoubtedly have a potentially company making acreage in the oil and gas hot sector at the moment- WEST AFRICA.
Its all purely speculation at the moment on who the JV partner will be and what will be the conditions attatched to any such joint venture but being financially stronger and with million dollar survey reports in our archives, First Australian certainly seems to ticking all the correct boxes in becoming a substantial player in the West Africa oil and gas hot spot. Rest assured that in my opinion the Senegal Government would not have granted First Australian with another renewal on the blocks had first australian not produced something of substance to the table to convince the government that they are serious about drilling and proving up resources in their potential billion barrel of oil in place acerage. I am confident to hold first australian with speculation leading me to believe that first australian has a substantial major that are willing to drill and this is what got them their renewal with the Senegal Government. Like us, the Senegal governemnt would be as eager as ever for the block to prove anywhere near its in ground potential so that they will start receiving substantial royalty payments but doing so will also attract a suite of majors wishing to also gain acreage in highly prospective senegal
all in all research is priceless so do your own and invest wisely. first australian is still a speccie with great potential. the main driver i feel short term will not necessarily be the 136 point dow surge overnight nor the 3% rise in crude oil overnight (although it will push the price higher short term) but the main driver will the firm joint venture announced to drill in senegal.
Purely speculation but I wouldnt be surprised if a Chinese oil and gas major is already in advanced talks with First Australian on terms of such an agreement as we know the Chinese have taken a strong leverage to fund oil projects in West Africa to hit the black gold. Then again Tullow Oil and Gas also seems like a suitable oil and gas major which would be easily drawn back to the table with the stronger position that first australian is now in after their departure years ago
of interest check tullows buisness strategy at http://www.tullowoil.com/tlw/siteware/pdf/coreareaoverview_08.pdf for a positive outlook on their dominance in africa
From the website of interest
Ïn 2008 Africa represented 62% of group working interest production, 90% of reserves and resources and 69% of revenue. For this reason Tullow Oil and Gas is highly focused on Africa and is a dominant player in the region. Of remarkable interest, out of 22 exploration wells in the 2009 half year report, 18 of those were in Africa-( 17 being discoveries) a 94% success rate. Of more significance is that in the same report Tullow had a total of 60 development wells of which 59 were in Africa. This is pure speculation but it wouldnt surprise me if it was firm discussions between First Australian and Tullow Oil and gas which got FAR over the line for their recent renewal on the Senegal block-
all will be revealed in the not to distant future- happy holding.
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