SUMMARY OF TODAY'S MEETING
1. There is no denying, Adrian was disappointed with the market's response to the quarterly, given 55% growth in cashflow and 71% growth in Invigo. The company growth exceeded the targets they set. The reasons for this are many fold IMO. Firstly, the stock has a significant number of small retail investors who are looking for a quick profit on 'the next big thing', with very little understanding of the company or what it does. Secondly, the general decline in tech stocks, particularly those considered to be in the BNPL sector, which CRO actually isn't, but is frequently perceived this way. Thirdly, there is an expectation of big deals and the DW being announced in detail, but these announcement, where they are considered to be spruiking or ramping up the company, are not permitted by the ASX. Adrian gave the example of the JT announcement, which could only be announced in its most basic terms, without showing what this deal means when it is implemented to its maximum capacity. These are frustrations which, along with high investor expectations, have left investors in the dark. Adrian accepted the criticism that his enthusiasm, whilst compelling, annoys/ concerns people when they can't see the nuts and bolts of what is going on behind the scenes.
2. This, I hope, will clarify where the company is actually at and what to expect this year.
a) The DW is up and running in its infancy, but the magnitude of the warehouse they want to establish, requires them to demonstrate their capabilities across a number of industries in order to be able to control massive sums of money. The compliance issues across multiple currencies has required them to employ one of the world's largest companies in this area to facilitate this. It is time consuming and must be done properly.
b) This Q is missing all the revenue from JTs and ebev, which didn't go live until the end of the quarter, so this is a clue to a continued increase in revenue in the next quarter.
c)Adrian described the trajectory they are now on as a 'hockey stick' trajectory, where they still have no competitors. There are plenty of competitors in segment of their business, but no one has put together the all inclusive platform they offer.
d) In the next Q they don't need any more customers- their goal is to deliver with excellence the deals they already have secured- and this involves them being able to increase their transaction capabilities 1000x. Adrian said this is a conservative expectation, but they have to give many new staff time to to fully learn the ropes.
e)Their growth focus is on non bank lending and trade finance, and most revenue is generated in the wholesale sector, with Agri being a major player, both here and cross border. This includes areas such as fertilisers, chemicals, fuel and seeds. He particularly mentioned abattoirs, fresh produce and carbon trading. However, the next Q growth will be evident in payment flow, rather than lending.
f) They have risk averse credit policies in case of a recession.
g) They have excellent opportunities now in Asia and India, but by the end of the year, they expect to roll out in the UK and US. Adrian said most of his time now is dealing with big international players.
h) The Indian connection, where they have 25 software developers working, is the inroad to the UK and US. Many of these developers have significant international experience with major overseas companies, whereas Australian developers generally lack this. They also have a tech developer in Taipei, and an Incorporated structure in Singapore, along with bank accounts set up there.
i) He describe Perth as a 'minnow' in the world, and as such, all but one of their sales team is located in the Eastern States.
j) They are incorporating crypto and blockchain capabilities and acknowledged that AI is a huge of interest.
3. Dave Wood gave a demo of the Pay by Link Service and the widget payment for 3rd party platforms. They were both super fast and easy to understand.
4. The biggest indicator of their expected success is the fact that the board and the staff are sacrificing part of their salary in return for shares- this shows their confidence in where they are going.
5. Finally, Adrian was emphatic that they have no intention of cap raising- they have enough working capital for over 18 months, even if they didn't earn a cent in that time.
To sum up, it was a very positive outlook, but it will take longer to reflect this in the share price, as they are a unique company which is not fully understood yet by most. This is definitely NOT the stock for day traders or people wanting a quick buck. But for people like me, I'm prepared to wait, and I don't think I'll be waiting much longer. The foundations are cemented and the future looks very bright. If you don't share my confidence, then maybe sell, but I don't see downramping and casting aspersions a productive way of helping this company move forward.
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