Hi WombatKeith
Very bold question, thank you for putting it to me. Obviously this is not financial advice and I don't think anyone should ever invest money based on what they read on HotCopper.
However that being said, happy to put together some basic information and timelines supporting the rationale:
Stage 1 Siviour based on:
- NPV of US$499m (AU$700m)
- 28,000t production p.a.
- US$142m (AU$200m) CapEx
Major new information to feed into revised DFS:
- Offtakes covering 60,000t production p.a. (double increase)
- Non Binding Offtakes from Posco, Minguang, Zeto and Hanwa
- Possible equity stake by Posco
- Major project status from Australian Government
- Higher PSG yields in commercial scale milling tests
- +40% increase in PSG pricing
- Conditional approval on a $185m loan facility from Australian Government arm, Export Finance Australia
My Estimate for the NPV is upwards of US$1.2Bn (AU$1.7Bn) for the revised DFS of Stage 1 & 2.
Given the project is becoming more and more derisked (i.e. if $185m funding comes through the derisking effect is huge), the discount to Market Capitalisation will narrow.
Market Capitalisation could approach AU$1Bn (i.e. ~$0.53/share)
ALL IMO
Wolf
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- Ann: Australian Government Conditionally Approves A$185m Loan
Ann: Australian Government Conditionally Approves A$185m Loan, page-171
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