I'm undecided still on this hence I haven't commented for or against it.
Mogul has been able to get top class talent something rarely seen at this end of the market and common denominators is Gernot. Yes getting top class talent doesn't mean it will be successful but to me gives it greater odds.
Jamie, Warbo, Cameron Adams, Mike were all good quality people with pretty amazing CVs. Cameron had to leave due to his work commitments with Canva but from the announcement still on good terms and sounds like he is still willing to be a sound board on things just cannot commit to being a NED with Canva and their aggressive recruitment/growth they are going through. Mike, Warbo are all really good quality people, as to each and why it didn't go as planned is something we aren't fully aware. Was it just there isn't an addressable market, it is too early for something Mogul was looking at doing, the sales cycle is so slow and as such they felt pivot came to plug the burn quicker and then pivot back to the platform once the burn is more under control and/or something else?
However we still have Kate who is willing to take 100% of her pay in shares meaning she is paying tax to be a NED for Mogul, she would certainly have a sharp mind given her history however to date she has actually been losing money with her decision. Cameron was also very similar having 70% in shares (30% cash for assuming to help pay tax), yes Cameron is no longer a NED and is also a billionaire but still why these people willing to take shares in lieu of payment as they both would of been getter financially to just be paid cash with where the current SP is.
Chris is rather new to Mogul so bit unfair to be too critical of him but he has pedigree of previous success doing very similar to what Mogul is doing now but only time will tell if his history will repeat here for us.
However all along Gernot has been there and he also chipped in 50k on the previous raise.
I am by no means saying Gernot is a saint, as the lack of communication that seems to be coming and quite a hefty pay being 450k p.a. seems quite high for a company such as ESH however I have seen companies perform worse than ESH and the Chairman is being paid 3x this amount so who knows if this is fair compensation - in my eyes it seems a over the top but same time Gernot we have to assume has been involved with Cameron, Kate, Mike & Chris in having them join ESH.
I could go on but hopefully you can see where I am sitting, if you exclude the past (which we shouldn't) we have Gernot, Chris and Kate on the board level doing M&A as the primary goal and looking for profitable companies to bring into the fold and then further develop. That is a pretty strong board but then history of having good quality members hasn't given success previously it seems so is it just a repeat or does the laws of probability mean that this direction will work. After all if you flip a coin and it lands on tails 3x in a row the probability is that it will land on heads however the chance is still 50/50. Given the strong boards you would think the chance previously and now was more 60/40 of success and even still now I would still go 60/40 as odds and then you add in probability and the odds might actually be stronger. This would also be the same in reverse if ESH has smashed all previous parts that eventually you get the opposite outcome. Then again it could all flop as before that is why it is a risky investment where it could boom or bust but the returns will either boom or bust.
SP has been pretty stable at the 0.5c/0.6c obviously we would prefer it to be stable to 2/3/4/5c and also not saying it cannot go lower and I do have a buy order in lower and however there appears plenty of support so everyone is free to make their own decision.
I'll end it now and if it is TLDR as mentioned at the start I'm on the fence.
