Ann: Opthea announces establishment of ATM Equity Program, page-7

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03/02/22

12:43

Post #: 59328064
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Originally posted by PigRace: ↑

Reg the ATM:

A targeted deal size of $75 MN / A$105 MN at current share price equals 11,5 MN ADRs / 92 MN ordinary shares to be issued until P3 topline data at very YE2023.

This equals to 25.000 ADRs (the corresponding of 200.000 ordinary shares) to be issued every trading day. Every SINGLE trading day. For the next 23 months.

This compared to an average daily trading volume of 10.000 ADRs on Nasdaq or 600.000 ordinary shares in Sydney.

The thing is, at current share price and even more so when share price are rising, the ATM means less dilution. Smart.

But given the lack of significant newsflow until September 2022 (when hopefully full recruitment is communicated) the mere size of the daily issuance could impede any upward trend for OPT stock. And then, once the share price starts dropping (for whatever reason) the idea of an ATM risks becoming pretty value destroying as the dilution to make the targeted final $75 MN becomes larger and larger.

And I doubt OPT could make it all the way through YE2023 with significantly less additional cash needs than those communicated with the CR. And the market knows so.

@All: Is this a too skeptical view?
@Hotfire: What was your experience on this "volume issue" with the BRN ATM you mentioned?

Expand

BRN has been pumping out regular updates & news flow, which attract new money into the stock.

Whereas OPT is in hibernation

Originally posted by PigRace: ↑

Reg the ATM:

A targeted deal size of $75 MN / A$105 MN at current share price equals 11,5 MN ADRs / 92 MN ordinary shares to be issued until P3 topline data at very YE2023.

This equals to 25.000 ADRs (the corresponding of 200.000 ordinary shares) to be issued every trading day. Every SINGLE trading day. For the next 23 months.

This compared to an average daily trading volume of 10.000 ADRs on Nasdaq or 600.000 ordinary shares in Sydney.

The thing is, at current share price and even more so when share price are rising, the ATM means less dilution. Smart.

But given the lack of significant newsflow until September 2022 (when hopefully full recruitment is communicated) the mere size of the daily issuance could impede any upward trend for OPT stock. And then, once the share price starts dropping (for whatever reason) the idea of an ATM risks becoming pretty value destroying as the dilution to make the targeted final $75 MN becomes larger and larger.

And I doubt OPT could make it all the way through YE2023 with significantly less additional cash needs than those communicated with the CR. And the market knows so.

@All: Is this a too skeptical view?
@Hotfire: What was your experience on this "volume issue" with the BRN ATM you mentioned?

Expand

OPT Price at posting: $1.10 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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(20min delay)
Last 60.8¢		Change -0.003(0.41%)		Mkt cap ! $750.9M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
61.0¢	61.3¢	57.5¢	$1.159M	1.945M

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
24	49405	60.5¢

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
61.0¢	28927	18

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
20	41640	0.605
15	87449	0.600
10	42127	0.595
10	260294	0.590
3	23149	0.585

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.610	7126	10
0.615	45797	10
0.620	230252	12
0.625	201805	7
0.630	214750	9

Last trade - 14.32pm 10/09/2024 (20 minute delay)

OPT (ASX) Chart

Ann: Opthea announces establishment of ATM Equity Program, page-7

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Ann: Opthea announces establishment of ATM Equity Program, page-7

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