But I guess we are in good company right. Is it a lost opportunity to have NOT sold the Moblan transaction to a higher level of Investor Interest back in October......PERHAPS.
Based solely on the investment case and numbers , would it have been a better opportunity for US$89 million spent on a stake in Frontier Lithium at the same time .....Definitely YES . Because if you do the math based on Frontier's current share price and MC compared to around the 5 - 6th October.
So for the same amount of money , Sayona could have taken a 60% controlling stake in Frontier and be up bought had they done that transaction , Sayona would be up around C$247 million ( A$274 million ) for this hypothetical initiative - instead of being down A$216.3 million for the 865,372,911 on the movement from what was supposed to be the alleged TERP pricing of 14.75 cents to the 12.25 -12.5 cents we are currently trading at now.
And as I have mentioned before that is a swing of near enough half a $ BILLION dollars going the wrong way for Sayona shareholders and what I would say is more a damning indictment of the status of the Quebec Lithium Industry when compared to Ontario....or at least a view taken by some in the Canadian Investment circles.
Either that or we paid way too much for the luxury of owning 60% of a project which just so happens to have the 40% commitment from the Quebec Government. At the same time , it would seem that the Market just doesn't want to be ascribing any premium for this connection at the present moment.
So the Jury is obviously still out as to whether Sayona's 60% Moblan and the newly acquired ' 100% owned adjoining ' Lac Albert claims can be a BIGGER and as high a quality Lithium HUB as Frontier's PAK deposit and surrounding other showings.
However , one thing for sure is that we are in good company at the present moment because if we look to INR and LTR as immediate like for like comparisons , with INR we have their present share price down approximately 13.2%since they announced their invitation into US's DOE loans program due diligence process .
And LTR is down 14.2% since it announced its $450 million capital raising at $1.75 ....so 21.1% down from the actual capital raise pricing . It is also down 16% from when it announced on the 10th of January of its long lead capital item purchase of Metso Outotec's giant SAG Mill for circa $10 million ,..... and down 15.5% since announcing its intended 5 year 100,000 -150,000 tonnes off-take with LG Energy Solution commencing in 2024.
So the retrace is broad based apart from some of the smaller hard rock hopefuls who have been busily pegging ground . And the market sentiment by all accounts appears to have started back in December.
Based on other comparative International peers , I would expect that SYA should hold around these key support levels of 12 - 12.5 cents which was pretty much locked in back in early August 2021. And anything outside of this to the downside would in my opinion be an absolute gift to Investors ahead of all the news flow in February - March , and April 2022.
(20min delay)