i attended agm today., page-11

bobandsandy,
whilst I had some modest success in tipping that the farm-out process suggested this would not be a simple farm-in and that the CR was on the cards as a back up plan, I have no idea were the volume or SP is headed. Never had any success in predicting these and more often than not I am left scratching my head on the outcome.

When u get some predictable news u often get a predictable response from the market. The events of the last few days have complexity and uncertainty involved so I suspect the market to react accordingly.

From my observations in such circumstances the markets first reaction is either an over reaction or mis- interpretation which is adjusted in subsequent days. We seem to have had a small bounce back on a flat day. There was a little more short selling yesterday than usual at around 11.3% (2.74mm) so it will be interesting to check todays shorts tomorrow. If ur worried about the instos. that took part in the CR selling out to take a profit, we may get some of that but I would be surprised if it was on a substantial scale as it would be a dumb strategy at current trading prices. The CR shares are expected to settle on 23 November.

My gut feeling is that we shouldn't trade below high 40s and probably hang around mid 50s or slowly drift up a little until we get any more news. You would expect the CR to underpin the SP in the interim. I have no idea on volumes but if we are going to trade sideways you wouldn't expect volume to change much. BTW, my gut feeling has a poor record!

goodluck.
ANZ