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PNV - Banter and General Comments, page-6055

  1. 261 Posts.
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    Its not clear to me what you're trying to say, but I tend to disagree.

    You start out with a comment regarding insider transactions/holdings, then begin to explain transactions/holdings by/of institutions (nominee accounts), institutions aren't insiders. These nominee accounts hold shares for many reasons, think hedging for warrants/equity swaps/OTC derivatives they transact with clients, again, not insiders. Their transactions don't carry anywhere near the same information as insider transactions. The entire comment regarding institutions seems pointless other than to note their relative size to PB's tiny transactions that are relative to his own total holdings.

    Then referring to a book by Peter Lynch and referencing Warren Buffet. It's noteworthy that correlation (between his investing success and opinion on insider transactions) is not necessarily causation, especially in the context of a multi decade equity market bull run supported by ever declining interest rates accompanied by rising balance sheet leverage.

    Also, to ignore insider transactions is folly in the the real world, as opposed to in a book in the context of a different market regime. Some recent real world examples highlight this;
    1. Satya Nadella, CEO of Microsoft, sold half yes, 50% or US$280m worth) of his MSFT holdings in December 2021, that's all time highs.
    2. Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla, sold 10% of TSLA holdings in December 2021, that's all time highs.
    3. And the juicy one, look at the insider sales during 2021 of all the companies held by Cathie Woods ARKK etf... astounding. If you take anything from my comments, it's this example.

    As with most books, context is everything. Ignore insider sales at your peril, these are facts, not an opinion from a wildly different market regime.
    HAGW
 
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