Ann: FY22 Earnings Guidance, page-19

'The Oz' appears to have interviewed GNC CEO Robert Spurway today.

Some of the article rehashes the GNC release of this morning, but here's the excerpt that adds new information:

"...Not even VB maker, Asahi, bypassing GrainCorp to secure grain directly from farmers could dull Mr Spurway’s enthusiasm.

“I certainly wouldn’t like to comment but I still enjoy a drink when I can get one, in moderation,” he said.

“Generally, we continue to build a strong relationship with a number of global brewers and maltsters around the world and we’re seeing good demand for high quality malting barley both in Australia and globally.”

Key to the strong earnings forecast are the higher prices Australian grain has attracted, following drought across the northern US and Canada, combined with the threat of a Russian invasion in Ukraine, which threatens the nation’s harvest.

Mr Spurway would not be drawn on the Russia-Ukraine tensions, only saying that GrainCorp had no fixed assets in the eastern European country. “We’ve got a small team of people (in Ukraine) that are all Ukrainian nationals.

“They’ve been very resilient in the face of this.

“It‘s probably also worth noting that the drought across the northern hemisphere generally means that our clear priority at the moment is getting grain from Australia to the world.

“Ukraine is not a particularly big feature of our current operations at the moment.”

Ukraine harvested 32.4 million tonnes of wheat last year. Meanwhile, Australia’s wheat production is set to hit a record of 34.4 million tonnes this season, 3 per cent higher than the previous record set in the 2020-21 season.

Total winter crop production is forecast to reach a record of just over 58 million tonnes in 2021-22, according to the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences.

If forecast production and prices are realised, this will be Australia’s most valuable winter crop ever at over $22bn.

Despite the sudden changes in the weather potentially upending forecasts, Mr Spurway said GrainCorp was well insulated.

“What we call carry, the inventory that we’re holding, will certainly flow into next year and benefit next year, irrespective of weather conditions. So we’re in a very strong position that will extend into 2023,” he said.

“Our combined grain intake across the harvest period has totalled 13.7 million tonnes, year to date, supplemented with a high opening grain inventory position of 4.3 million tonnes. We also expect good summer crop receivals in FY22, which are benefiting from optimal weather conditions.”