https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Could-This-Be-The-Last-Great-American-Oil-Boom.html"Lack of Tier I locations, Second-order effects-
Other voices are now echoing the concerns I’ve noted about the remaining quality of drillable inventory. An article carried in the Wall Street Journal-WSJ, discussed this dwindling inventory of top-tier locations in arecent article.
“The limited inventory suggests that the era in which U.S. shale companies could quickly flood the world with oil is receding, and that market power is shifting back to other producers, many overseas. Some investors and energy executives said concerns about inventory likely motivated a recent spate of acquisitions and will lead to more consolidation.”
WSJ
If in fact, this reduced level of premium drilling locations does impact shale output, then the burst of activity I anticipate will not yield the results in production growth desired and anticipated. Does this mean the increase in drilling activity I am projecting will decline as well?
Probably not. The decline rate of shale, the aging of the well inventory, both suggest a renewed drilling push required to sustain, or attempt to increase shale output at higher levels will ultimately fall short of its goal.
Your takeaway
We think the increases in output we are seeing now are unsustainable. Companies may shift to lower-tier drilling locations that could not compete for capital in a lower price environment to avoid their being stranded in a downturn. In any event, as these top-tier locations are used, production will fall."Could the TMS be one of these plays?
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