Bring forward always a possibility, but (always a but) :
1. "The Elephant in the Room". Yahua agreement had a ceiling price. My gut feeling this is in the $950/t ish range, as this was commercial deal, have no details, although done when in $750/t range, and Roskill forecasts where relatively small future rises (see DFS). And my 'dodgy brothers' financial modelling suited this value for comparing payback, npv etc. So question is does one fulfil this 4 year deal quickly or drag it out? First lot of boatloads of Spod go there in 2023 and clear the deal quickly and with continuing rising Li prices sell remainder then?
2. Re EPC contract, my thinking is Engineering / design done, in Procurement stage of shop/structural drawings and associated fabrication stages of process items and steelwork. A bit hard to advance this, maybe too late to split, etc. For Construction phase have to rely on Primero to be the pros (is not their first one).
3. Most (not all) construction projects progress follow a "S" curve. Slow to start, from 25-75% at 45 degree line, and flatten out at end. This end period maybe better target area for extra Capex vs Earlier completion. Contractors start to pull labour off-site (either minimise losses or maximise profit) and it is here incentives tied to practical completion work well. Or in commissioning phase, reach 50% nameplate throughput by?? /12/2022 get $xxx,xxx bonus.
Still a worthwhile consideration to complete earlier and get into production asap.
An even more worthwhile consideration would be some progress reports and pics!!!!!! from Core. Arghhhhhhh this no info is.......
CXO Price at posting:
80.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)