Pretty much the entire rally from $14 to $23 was a PE re-rate, it was not driven by an increase in earnings expectations as the average price assumed by analysts has not changed (materially). As of yesterdays, FMG's blended forward 2 year PE was 14 which is one of the highest multiples FMG has traded at over the last 7 years... and now we have IO prices plunging again.
A forward PE at this elevated level just has no respect for the uncertainties FMG faces, its priced as if it is assumed that 100+ IO prices will remain and cost pressures will remain under control and FFI just works itself out.
To get back to a more normal 2 year blended forward PE of about 11, without an increase to earnings, would require a share price fall of about 20% from recent highs. That is why I believe FMG is overpriced here.
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Last
$20.35 |
Change
0.210(1.04%) |
Mkt cap ! $62.65B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$20.41 | $20.76 | $20.26 | $183.4M | 8.943M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
3 | 2123 | $20.34 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$20.36 | 4581 | 2 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
3 | 2123 | 20.340 |
4 | 22803 | 20.320 |
1 | 31103 | 20.310 |
7 | 27487 | 20.300 |
4 | 6862 | 20.290 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
20.360 | 4581 | 2 |
20.370 | 874 | 2 |
20.390 | 300 | 1 |
20.410 | 1000 | 1 |
20.420 | 10 | 1 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 26/07/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
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FMG (ASX) Chart |