TGR 0.00% $5.22 tassal group limited

Ann: Tassal 1H22 results presentation, page-13

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    I understood the 40kt salmon production target is for FY22, down from 41kt. I would presume that is the difference due the growing conditions. Then for sales, you can add 4.5kt or so from inventory draw down.

    In terms of price, he did say that the price they received for Jan/Feb was around $2 higher for exports than 2H22, so around $16.50 sound right. That's still only around 65-70NOK for 1H22 and around 75NOK for 2H22, and we had up to 90NOK this week which he didn't reference at all (not yet in the fishpool data). Estimates for export volumes by half is 8.5kt in 1H and 5.5kt in 2H (my figures, not mentioned by Mark). Moreover, he mentioned that in Feb there will be a wholesale price increase, and again in March. Wholesale is around 6-7kt for the full year. As I had noted before, unlike domestic - retail, there is some pricing power in the wholesale as this is not contracted for 2-3yrs. Overall, expect volumes to come down from 1H (25kt) to 2H (20kt), and margins to increase.

    For prawns, it will be around 5kt this year as previously estimated at the AGM. And then the target for FY23 is 5.5kt, at least that 's what I understood from the presentation. Unfortunately, still not ramping up their CAPEX in to this space. The growth is mainly from yield improvements. Interesting to see a substantial increase in pricing, but only small impact on margins (increasing costs). So margins went from ~$3.60s to ~$3.90s, and should get to around $4.20/KG in 2H according to the conference call. Still below the $5-6/kg target.
 
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