As is always the case, I have never seen a chart that didn't provide the basis for any argument one might run. The usual key to successful charting is choosing your start date to optimise the outcome you are looking to prove.
I note the livewire graph commences in 2013, just after the period where MGF returns were well above index. From that point on, it becomes a useless reference point to me. I have held MGF since inception and have generated far higher returns than the 11.7% referenced in the data.
Outperforming a point to point rate of return is not that difficult (or that easy) but it relies on the investor actively adding capital and withdrawing capital after periods of outperformance or underperformance. As many have stated before me, no manger gets it right all the time.
I treat my managed funds as my conservative asset allocation as my direct investments are invariably extremely aggressive, out of the money cyclical plays.
With preservation of capital being an overarching objective, I have rotated investments between PIF and MGF for a long long time as these 2 managers consistently deliver the smallest drawdowns over time. I have very large amounts invested and not a lot of time, so I don't need or want to know about more than 2 funds in this sector. This approach allows me to know the weighting and styles of each pool very very intimately, which is an important criterion, as each is very different in their portfolio composition and asset protection methodology. Conveniently, they have a low relative correlation allowing blending to be a very efficient strategy.
I do not pretend to be smarter than either of these institutions and don't get my entry/exit points even close to perfect. Far from it. However, MGF outperformance pre-covid with its heavy US tech centric portfolio appeared past its use by date, while it remained a market darling. Meanwhile PTM's less spectacular performance ex US has and was bound to outperform at various points along the way, and when they did, it was large.
I was not terribly active in switching between the funds, maybe once or twice every couple of years. The trigger to switch at all was usually based on my own concern about the weightings of each fund, as much as by the confidence I had that neither could consistently outperform the other. Selling one at a high commonly coincided with the other being low. Overlay this simple allocation model with dollar cost averaging has generated returns far greater than each must report assuming a passive investment.
Presently I am heavily overweight PTM and underweight MGF for a number of reasons, none of which have anything to do with the current MFG management movements.
Having never MFG until recently, as I believed it was grossly over-valued, I have stepped up into the listed entity. On the other hand, I have traded PTM quite hard over the years as their volatile FUM numbers offered regular excellent entry and exit points. I am also overweight PTM at a current average cost of just under $3 (still under water). I am not expecting PTM to "pop" like MFG as the underlying price drivers are quite different. Yet I do expect PTM to more actively seek to restore its SP over 2022 using capital management measures.
Investing is truly a captivating past time, especially when the monetary outcome is not quite so important allowing emotion to be kept in check. I will say it has taken a very long time and a lot of reading, learning and errors to get here, but in my view, it is within reach of nearly everyone who is serious about this activity.
I look forward to MFG exceeding expectations and then failing to meet them. It is just the way funds management goes and how investors, both institutional and retail, behave.
I have taken some money off the table amongst today's excitement as I never believed I would get the chance to buy at $16 and $17 just a few short days ago. Yes, I got a bit excited at those prices and bought too much. Now I want my cash back for the next stock that will disappoint the market. As we are now in reporting season proper, I don't expect I will have wait very long, and I do expect to get my hands bloodied as the SP of whatever it is, becomes oversold.
Such is the demand on any speculator. My managed investments are my safely net, in the (hopefully unlikely) event of senility causing me to have a complete brain fade. Having seen it happen to some of my peers, it would be very foolish of me to be the sole manager of my life's work. As in life, I am happy to share the love where I am able to.
Good luck to all MFG investors who resisted the urge to sell in the company's darkest hour. In my view, your resilience will be rewarded in the years ahead, as dark clouds currently gather above all markets. To the non holders, I remain perplexed why on earth you can spend time on something that is meaningless to your life. Maybe its schadenfreude or maybe people just like to be painful. I still have not worked that anomaly in life out to any satisfactory conclusion, possibly because I could really care no less.
Be careful out there.
GLTASH
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