That is a thorough financial break-down and sincerely appreciate you sharing your work there @Anteviariel
Would you mind clarifying some points on the tables please? I'm not nit picking, just keen to have as solid a picture of future dividends as possible!
Table 1 SCM6.0 Scenario
- SC6.0 Revenue AUD$B. I think there may be a formula error for the -10% and -20% values. The increment values on the plus side seem OK.
- OPEX SC6.0 Prod & Tpt are the same when the price decreases yet change when the price increases. Do you have an undocumented assumption why OPEX would be higher when we are selling for a higher price or is this a formula error?
- CAPEX Sustaining. Again, not sure why the values are changing on the price increase side of the ledger versus the price reduction. Is there an assumption that there is an increased spend on capital maintenance when times are good?
Table 2 Integrated Project Scenario
- LHM Revenue AUD$B. Looks like the formula error is on the price increase side this time. DSS $29,401 +60% ($17,640) = $47041 vs table value of $41248. Important as this is a $10-12B+ change in revenue at those higher price increments.
- Same comment for SC6 OPEX Prod & Tpt as per Table 1.
- Same comment for LHM Opex Prod & Tpt as per SC6 OPEX line.
- Is the $121M loan now paid off? I think that's what your assumption#6 said, therefore $0 in this table? The assumption I draw from your analysis is that works such as Buldania, getting to Carbon net zero and so on are funded from retained revenue.
Again, thank you for the work!
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