From what I can gather Russia's grievance is:
-That by the Ukraine joining NATO, that NATO
will station missiles & weapons of war close
to the Russian border which poses a security threat
to Russia as did Russia's attempt to do ditto to
the USA in the early 1960s in Cuba.
NATO is led by the USA and is Nuke armed
via the US, France & the UK.
Russian Strategy:
-Demand an undertaking from NATO that it will
not accept Ukraine membership.
If NATO does not agree then:
-mass Russian Troops along the Ukraine eastern & northern borders (along Belarus)
-equip Russian rebels in Luhansk & Donetsk (at present Ukraine's
eastern provinces that are predominantly ethnic Russians with
a right to Russian Passports) to harass Ukranian Armed Forces
in guerilla style tactics .
-if the guerilla war intensifies, then Russian Troops on the border
will likely overwhelm the Ukraine Army and forceably reclaim
Luhansk & Donetsk as it did Crimea 6 years ago.
So the Godfather offer by Russia to the Ukraine & NATO (dfacto the USA)
"Allow the Ukraine into NATO & the Ukraine will loose an Arm & a Leg
(namely the provinces of Luhansk & Donetsk) and as such Russia
will maintain its St Petersberg to Rostov-on-Don line.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/world/2022/02/22/putin-russia-ukraine-regions/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Morning%20News%20-%2020220222_with%20Tag
# By the way the Dutch airliner with some Aussies aboard was shot down over this Ukraine/Russian
contested territory.
Should Aus become involved?
IMO, no, because we're not a member of NATO & we're not Nuke armed
and this potential conflict is between two Nuke armed sides.
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