fridays trading, page-55

touche wink, and a very respectible analogy. Maybe my next post provided the support for existance of your dead elephant and accounts for part of our differences (but thats my bigger picture stream analogy) (;o)

I don't think for a minute what you do are how you do it is of lesser importance or validity - it is different is all. My reference to yourself was because I think your timeframes are immediate and very much shorter than mine using a different instrument that profits greatly from 'eddies'.

Hence why I should look at learning how to trade indexes and currencies, as red candles this week or next was a given IMO - even using my timeframes. (XJO is an index of equities, not currencies).

For the sake of clarity, IMO the currency rates are based on the premise of one currency's strength compared to another - this translates directly to those economies and is based on economics, not speculation. Which is why anyone betting on a strong USD has got to be nuts IMO until the US shows a convincing array of good economics - OR - the other paired currency is weaker by comparison to the US.

I'm not being derrogatory, but having been around the block a few times, there is nothing personal or uneducated about stating the obvious concerning the US state of affairs. This translates directly into it's currency IMO. Same can be said for the strength of the Euro, and the Yen for that matter.

Which is why I can thank yourself, PaulB and PeterP for planting this seed and broadening the perspective. It's definitely a more wholistic view of the markets.

IMO - the AUD/USD is only going to shake loose from the AUD weakening on fundamentals. As I've said before, trade revenues, foreign debt, shakey ASX market cap, would feed back into this as a weakness in the AUD not a strength in the USD.

I can only imagine that the USD is being traded on speculation with an strong undercurrent of weakness. I can't see this rising up in the short term unless you can point out a different dung pile and produce another dead animal. (;o)

I know the elephant is dead already. But I can still appreciate your methods and opinion.

rgds,
pw