Picker9, the SP movement has nothing to do with the vacuum of news - when positive announcements are made (getting Chatree back effectively gives Kingsgate $1b, statement that deferring the TAFTA award is positive and statement from the BoD “THERE IS NO DOWNSIDE”!), the SP goes down! Numerous posters (MikeMelb et al) have noted what a gift this is, and the instos are on to it too - they just aren’t playing by the rules. As Kafko noted in another thread (see screenshot above), “there seems to be a concerted attempt to shake out retail shareholders prior to the financing announcement”. I think it is just an attempt to steal shares from retail investors full stop. If they played by the rules, the SP would be well above $2.50. As other posters have noted, 70% of the daily trading volume is churning by BAML, so the liquidity is next to nothing…which means that the SP is meaningless! We all know the value - the TAFTA award (25-30 billion baht, circa $1b AUD) is the worst case scenario - this equates to a SP above $4.50 (and values Nueva Esperanza at zero)….there’s only upside from $4.50, and the Instos know it. The sharks are circling Oldfolk…
As for the vacuum of news, there will be a good reason for it. Do you honestly think that someone who has the determination, intellect and expertise to take on a foreign government, (all without the need to tap the shareholders as Investec lends him the money) and win, then comes out the other side and doesn’t have the funding sorted? I really think his is a given.
Separately, this is just me speculating, but I think Doncamilo is on to something regarding drilling the new SPLs. If they have found something (and they only had 20 years to appraise the best and most likely lucrative areas to apply for leases) this might potentially delay agreements with the Thai Government as the value of what they gave us (the 44 SPLs) versus other concessions - if the SPLs turn out to be really valuable, obviously the Thai Government will want to be less generous in other areas. Just a thought. Patience isn’t one of my virtues either.
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