My view is that the share price has diverged dramatically from business fundamentals, primarily due to the persistent selling of shares by the ex-management team: Vivienne Cheung & James Gong (who, at one point, held approx 30% of all shares on issue).
This is in contrast to a growing business, that is now EBITDA profitable and with rising margins. The THM acquisition is earnings accretive, has set a high bar for earn-out targets and opens up cross-sell opportunities. The Halo business is led by some of the best in the industry, such as Andrew Reeves.
Prior to the acquisition, VC had circa 13.5m units remaining (5% SOI). As of today, I believe they have less than 4m units remaining and a further 1m units were sold today on open at 8.2c. I have no qualms at all with their selling and wish them well, everyone is welcome to do as they please with buying v holding v selling — particularly in a volatile macro environment.
However, it has had an undeniable impact on the share price because the market quickly worked out that their decision to sell was an "overhang" which led to many investors postponing their entry until the overhang was to be cleared and b) because of the undeniable impact it has had on the supply v demand equilibrium for shares.
With the overhang now highly likely to be cleared by the end of this week, it is up to everyone to individually work out themselves what they think is likely to happen next with the share price over the coming weeks, months and even years. For those who are set at entry prices north of 40c, I understand that is a difficult position to be in. Long term holders have been through a world of pain with the share price.
I have my own view, but there is no guarantee that I am right. My only competitive edge is a) merely a longer time horizon than most, b) emotional stability and c) perhaps the work ethic to go one step further than most investors will be willing to.
For anyone selling, I completely respect your independent decision (everyone has different investment timelines, horizons, financial situations etc. etc.) and wish you well. Take care all. “Be curious, not judgemental” – Walt Whitman
