That is where the due diligence comes in rolling. Is the company funded. is it hitting its pipeline progression goals? Does the science show signs its working? Is it novel? etc etc.
A model gives a signal of if the investment/risk is worth it. DD shows the rest.
You did ask for examples of where it worked. Thats what I gave you examples of.
Models have also shown me other potential companies, but DD has kept me away or caused me to sell out early.
If i invest. I like to take a good holding size and get in early. When I am committing a lot of money. I want to be sure. to be sure (as my wife woukd day) And part of that includes making sure the potential return makes the risk worthwhile. That is where a model. and more conservative the better. proves its worth.
valuation thoughts, page-192
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