TLG 7.61% 42.5¢ talga group ltd

Ann: Talga produces Europe's first battery anode, page-96

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    Nouveau Monde Graphite 550 Million market cap with permitting and have funding.

    Before off take agreement and funding Syrah Resources was 633 Million market cap with mine permitting granted. They will provide 11.25ktpa of natural active anode material to Tesla.
    Syrah Resources have now secured
    permitting, off take agreement and funding. Valued today at 888Million to produce 11.25ktpa Active Anode Material.

    I don't expect huge gains with Talga 19ktpa permitting being granted. Main thing it will do is ensure the company value does not go to zero.


    IF Talga get 19ktpa permitting:
    • 19ktpa permitting granted = 684 Million market cap with Share price of $2.25 with 304 Million Shares outstanding.
    • Off take agreement for 19ktpa expecting 1.2 Billion market cap with Share Price of $4 with 304 Million Shares outstanding.
    • Funding at 12.5% discounted Share Price. Issue 67 Million new shares at $3.50 to raise 235 million.
    • $3.50 x 371 Million Shares outstanding = 1.3 Billion Market cap at Share Price of $3.50.


    In 2023 we are expecting the permitting approval of the 84ktpa Active Anode Material. This is where will see the big SP increase. But its still very much up in the air if Sweden will approve this underground mine so close to protected rivers and lake under the Natura2000 permitting.
    At this stage we don't even know what the status is of the 19ktpa open pit mine approval. Still waiting on the Natura2000 permitting.
    So I agree way more risk now, than after the approval of the first mine.


    Talga De-risking Company Current Value:
    • 19ktpa Mining Permitting Approval.

    Talga next big Share Price movers:

    • 19ktpa Customer Agreement.
    • 84ktpa Feasibility Study.
    • 84ktpa Mining Permitting Approval.
    • 84ktpa Customer Agreement.


    Syrah Natural Active Anode Material:
    • Current Market Cap of 888 Million.
    • Completed mine permitting, not capped at 19ktpa, with permitting until 2038. Open pit mine with mine life 50 years.
    • Graphite Mineral Resource of 1,422 Million Tonnes at 10% TGC, Graphite Ore Reserve 108 Million Tonnes at 16% TGC.
    • Off take agreement for 8ktpa AAM completed.
    • Funding for 11ktpa facility completed.
    • Operating Cost per tonne of Active Anode Material $3,109 per tonne.
    • Natural Active Anode medium price $5,471 per tonne.


    So from a risk vs reward standpoint. You risk all your capital if the 19ktpa permitting does not get approved being the first new mine. SP can go to zero if not approved.

    If you wait and get in after the first small mine of 19ktpa approval.

    There is still heaps of upside.
    • The customer off take agreement for 19ktpa.
    • The 84ktpa feasibility study
    • The mining approval of 84ktpa. The 84ktpa Exploitation permitting application was only submitted in September 2021. The Environmental permit application and Natura2000 permit has not been filed yet for 84ktpa. So still long wait for that permitting approval.
    • Customer off take agreement for 84ktpa.
 
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