IMO, it is driven by the receipt of the Share Purchase Plan letters.
Shareholders will sell down their shares to or near the SPP price, usually within 10%, to give them the cash to take up the SPP.
One only has to look at the recent SPP for examples, such as BLY, ESG (which has not held the SPP price).
The SP may well trade below the SPP price so be careful.
Date for closing is mid Dec so expect no upward pressure before then.
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