Current global production of Lithium Carbonate Equivalent (LCE) is about 450,000 Tonnes.
With over 200 battery Giga factories underway the demand will be at least 6 million tonnes pa by 2030, and Tesla alone has with its 10m car forecast (75kW per car, or 7.5TW, plus 1TW for grid energy storage) means Tesla is locking in its supply chain now. Literally, Tesla could use that half right now. If it had chips. That is its constraining point. Not battery factories. Not car factories.
I don't think most analysts get it right. Lithium mining will need to be 30 times to 40 times increase.
There is about 37kg of LiCO3 equivalent lithium in an EV battery, and 80 million cars are currently manufactured globally.
If a conservative 50m EVs are expected into production by 2030, the total demand for EV batteries would be 1.7 Million Tonnes. I suggest the majority of vehicles will be EV, or 80 to 100m EVs. Include the production or conversion of trucks, buses and rail.
So CXO is in a good place. I wrote this a few months ago.
https://changediscussion.com/lithium-shortfall-for-gigafactories/
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Ann: Core and Tesla execute Binding Term Sheet for Lithium supply, page-63
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