EL8 CHART, page-17

Hi Zxc

Just interested in your comments in regards to Russia moving troops to Kazakhstan?

I know Russia send in some troops in January to help push down the protests but haven't heard anything indicating Russia is looking to take military control of Kazakhstan...The current leaders there are already quite pro Russia.

In terms of a trade embargo against Kazakhstan in relation to the Ukraine situation I have to say at this stage it seems unlikely. Kazakhstan has declined a request from Putin to send forces to Ukraine and they also refused to recognize the eastern parts of Ukraine as independent states. They have even blocked Russian television stations spreading propaganda about the war.

At this stage they seem to be walking a fine line between not being included in any western sanctions but also not angering Putin to the point he might intervene (which is very unlikely in the short term anyway due to his finance and military being very stretched, plus the risk of getting even heavier sanctions and possibly getting powers on the sidelines to also sanction Russia, like India and countries in the middle east. It might even push China to condemn Russia if they where to invade Kazakhstan).

I suspect Putin will have his hands full with Ukraine for some time to come, not to mention the tremendous backlash this has created. I very much doubt he will be looking to start another war...That is unless he has truly lost it. But in that case he will likely try and take on NATO.

So I think the current situation will reduce the supply of reactor fuel and tighten the market more. But I doubt Kazakhstan's supply is likely to be disrupted.
Having said that, if protest break out again in Kazakhstan (remember they broke out due to high fuel prices!) then Russia is not as likely to come to help again so that could risk the supply lines.