weather, page-32

Here’s my analysis of the California situation as their winter comes to an end. Past precipitation is not worth directly looking at. The majority of precipitation and snow is in the months of December, January and February, so the start of March is a reasonable time to compare to last season. There are 5 metrics that will determine the water availability for the coming season:
1. Reservoir/lake/river storage. A few storage facilities have slightly more than this time last year but the majority have the same amount or slightly less. If this was the only metric then there is going to be severe water restrictions again this season.
2. Snow pack, which is another form of storage. Snow pack is less than this time last year and recent news reports suggest there is significant inaccuracy (overestimating) in the reports. If this was the only metric then there is going to be severe water restrictions again this season.
3. Groundwater reserves. There isn’t any current status reports but they were extremely low in late 2021 and experts predict it will take decades to properly replenish them, and only if they also reduce the allocations. This metric is inconclusive but most agree it is still running an overdraft.
4. Future precipitation. The wet season is over. If they get above average rain/snow through Spring and into Summer then it will alleviate the lack of storage. If they get below average precipitation then the drought will bite harder.
5. Late Spring & early Summer temperatures. Lower than average temperatures will be a reprieve. Higher than average temperatures, like last season, will cause the drought to bite harder.

If this was happening in Australia then it would be considered a crisis by the horticultural industry. Opening water allocations would probably be in the 10-20% range.

On a different note, the strengthening Aussie dollar is a concern. Today it rose past 73c. For SHV I’d like to see it below 70c. I think the rise is simply because Australia is going to benefit, comparatively to other countries, from the Ukraine/Russia confrontation and the outcomes from this aren’t going to be resolved quickly. The sanctions on Russia will go on for a long time even if Russia retreated tomorrow and apologised.