AKE Chart, page-1162

Not sure what you mean (unless you are referring to the Ukrainian city in which case I agree) but it did hit that target of 989 as predicted, and today I made much money - using the charts. (Mind you also using the charts a few days ago I missed out on making money, but at least I didn't loose any.)

I thought I'd do a little "thought experiment" mapping our chart to the probable flow of the major event holding everyone's attention at the moment. Stay with me on this - as I need to map a possible course of events over the next few weeks. I tie it back to the charts (specifically GARETH78's chart lower down).

I'll tell you what, though, it is almost impossible to believe anything in the MSM at the moment. After today's caffufle I went and looked up which plant they were talking about - and guess what, I read about that being captured and in Russian control on the 2 March, so why would they be shelling it today? What was actually set on fire was the barracks/maintenance building (apparently), and it wasn't shelling but gun fire (there's video). Is it possible the Ukrainians did it themselves trying to take it back? Not a chance in hell of the plant "blowing up".

Probably BEOT realising that the story was more propaganda BS is why we suddenly had 400k of orders appear out of nowhere. We seriously can't believe anything we are hearing from either side at the moment. There is a grain of truth somewhere in everything wrapped up an 100 layers of lies. Smartest guy I have heard commenting is General Douglas McGreggor - just about all the others are rubbish. I like him 'cuz he stated the plan as he see's it which is pretty close to what I decided was happening by looking at the maps and watching tonnes of videos over the last few days - and listening to both sides.

So how this impacted our price movements today got me thinking...

I originally thought this "special operation" would be over fast (like last Tuesday) - but that is because I am an idiot and didn't realise how big the place is, and assumed Russia would act like we did in Afghanistan and Iraq, and they did in Chechnya and Syria but that assumption was stupid as well for lots of reasons (not relevant to this discussion). Now I reckon it will drag on for a few weeks, but it will be effectively over once they cut off the eastern army by going up the Dnieper river which they are doing now.

So to get an estimated of how long the market volatility from this thing will run we can do a liitle math. Racing up the river they have to track about 1200 miles. A mechanised unit can do about 60 miles a day meeting some resistance but essentially going flat chat over an extended time frame, that gives around 20 days to cut off the eastern army, but assuming they advance from the North as well it might be, say 15, which means between 2 and 3 more weeks at the fastest, but the eastern army will be cut off in maybe 10 (bridges and stuff). So that means 23 to 30 March (give or take) + assume that they don't give up immediately but continue hold out till their supplies run out (fuel etc), say another 5 days - so 28 to 5 April.

Now tying this back to @GARETH78 's chart: he had retraces starting around the 8th Mar and 11 April. Now, I think the retrace on the 8th has started today, (4th), which will finish by the Tuesday or Wednesday, Gareth has it running for about 6 days I think, but I guess today could also be a fractal of a fractal, but if otherwise the next retrace starts around 7 April (adjusting for the early start of the first retrace). Curiously this ties up with above identified probable major event in that "special operation". Now it won't be completely over then because there is still the western side, but I suspect both sides will sue for peace urgently at that point as the big P will have accomplished his objective and the Ukrainian's will see the inevitable as they will have just lost the most professional of (and most of) their army . Once peace talks start seriously at that point that would give a big kick to the last wave of the rise which would be due to start around then as there would be a general sense of relief.

So I think the course of that "special operation" is intricately linked to what happens on our chart over the next few weeks. I think the momentum and pattern is mapped in the Gerth78's chart, but the triggers will be brought on by, and coincide with, the external events.