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05/03/22

22:01

Post #: 60008477
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Originally posted by zebster: ↑

We're too small and not nearly strategic enough, size-wise for BHP. IGO is another matter and remains an open question. That said, any suggestion that AF is conspiring with IGO to cap our SP for IGO's benefit is nuts, imo.

It's one thing for AF to have very cleverly (and lawfully) used his WSA purchases (that he acquired AFTER IGO's bid for WSA) to shoehorn himself into a ground-level JV position with IGO for their future battery precursor plant. However, the prospect of AF actively manipulating/capping the POS SP to lay the groundwork for a bid by IGO is another thing entirely. These guys won't expose themselves to that unnecessary regulatory risk -- certainly not for the sums involved. If IGO eventually bids for POS it won't be because they were acting in concert with AF.

My view is that AF (via Luca) was stalking IGO for a while, looking for an "in" to any future precursor plant. Look at the experience with AF's holding in PAN which he sold down after IGO's unsuccessful offer. (Ironically, IGO will likely end up with PAN in time, by virtue of WSA's strategic PAN holding.)

Fast-forward to IGO's play for WSA and AF finally gets what he was chasing re- the to have a JV interest.

Wrt both AF's (15%) and IGO's (8%) respective holdings in MCR (23% combined), I think the motivations there are different. I view them both (but independantly) as strategic LT blocking stakes against BHP. Funny thing, though, is they're unlikely to bid for MCR (in the forseeable future) because MCR needs BHP's concentrator and BHP would ensure (via offtake terms) that they keep the concentrate for their own process flow.

So, what of AF's broader strategic involvement in WA Ni nowadays? I think that following an internal review (likely conducted some time ago -- i.e. during/before 2020) AF (via Luca) decided they would shift to target downstream value-adding (tick) while retaining a strategic blocking stake in MCR for old-time's sake (tick). To that end, the POS holding becomes surplus to requirements. But extracting himself from POS takes time... a long time.

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Hi Zebster , I have a question for you regarding an earlier post of yours about POS. You said we are too small to be of interest to BHP & not nearly strategic enough. I understand our estimated nickel is on the smallish side, however would you be able to explain to me what you meant by the strategic comment.
Further are you of the opinion that we may be on the radar of IGO ? Thanks for any further info.

POS Price at posting: 9.1¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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