LRK 2.68% $1.15 lark distilling co. ltd

Ann: CEO and Managing Director Change, page-105

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  1. 603 Posts.
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    Forgot to note, also great to see a business valuation based on future profitability, and agree with the next 12 - 24m being the inflection point where asset backing becomes less important and we will trade at premium to asset backing and more inline with the sector.

    I also note, I have read your notes to your tables so understand your assumptions too, just pointing out the current plan to increase production seems far more aggressive than your assumptions. But no harm being conservative, particularly as your valuation isn't based on whisky on hand.

    But, your valuation is higher than my GP$ backed valuation so I will be much happier with your number at Circa $21 per share assuming no dilution, vs mine at $14.68 for 2030 ( @75m shares on issue)

    And as an additional, and conservative, valuation support metric, 5 times revenue in 2030 would be 5 x $220m = $1.1b = $14.67 per share... This is less than your valuation as it ignores the premium margin potential in the product. Also, this is a non-inflation adjusted metric (assumes $216 NSV per litre, this will increase over time with inflation, and possibly further success in premiumisation etc)... I ignore inflationary pressures to keep SP target in current terms for a real return, then add growth (inflation) for a future share price target...

    NSV per litre in 2030 could easily be $315 per litre (250 this year per Half Yr that expecting +15% increase), then 3% CAGR thereafter...

    Would put 1m litres of sales at 316m revenue, and at 5x revenue, 1.58b valuation, $21 per share. and inline with your metrics.

    Cheers.

    Thanks again for the post.





 
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$1.15
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