time to head off, so, my closing thoughts..., page-3

Cheers,

1.
I agree.

2.
About 5.6%, but only 20% franked...

For such a large, ASX20, defensive (Beta of 0.5)...

But, to be fair, I retract my previous statement, dividends aren't "low".

I guess, I just would prefer higher, given the nature of the stock. The dividends since March 2007 have been uninspiring (especially taking into account that they were franked 60% in 2007, compared to 20% for the last 3).... I can't be bothered double checking, but I would assume that 07/08 dividends were higher than 08/09, after taking into account franking credits.

I guess, dividends are 'okay'... but, they aren't a reason for me to invest in this stock.

3.
I agree, paying out $500m seems unlikely.

I certainly don't 'prior judge' that it will succeed. I just note the possibility that it will, and the probability that it will be settled. However, at any rate, it is a *risk* which increases my desired expected return for this stock.

Imagine if 50% gets paid out (read: $250m). You are right, it won't ruin the company... but, it certainly would lower the SP, IMHO.

4.
The fact that high short sales point to a higher buy side in the future is irrelevant:) Obviously you agree high short-sales are bad, yes?

RE: Short sales, I said, "slightly higher" ... "It's not massive, but, it's certainly not good!". Don't read too much into this minor point :).

It's certainly not a large negative for the stock, but, for example, if there were 0 short sales... that would be a positive. Without that positive (in fact, with a neutral, slightly negative)... it's just one less reason to buy QBE.

Finally, yes, in 10 years, I expect QBE to be higher. My investment horizon is 2.5 years, and I can now no longer totally believe that QBE will give me 10-15% ROI between now and then :).